yzThe Nature of Scientific Evidence: Statistical, Philosophical, and Empirical Considerations
yҎҁzM. L. Taper and S. R. Lele
ysz2004N
yoŁzThe University of Chicago Press, Chicago
yŐzxviii+567 pp.
yISBNz0-226-78957-8 [paperback]




yڎz
Foreword (C. R. Rao) xi
Preface xv

Part 1: Scientific process 1

Overview (Marc L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele)

1. A brief tour of statistical concepts (Nicholas Lewin-Koh, Mark L. Taper, and Subhash R. Lele) 3

2. Models of scientific inquiry and statistical practice: Implications for the structure of scientific knowledge (Brian A. Maurer) 17
2.1: Commentary (Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay and John G. Bennett) 32
2.2: Commentary (Mark L. Wilson) 39
2.3: Rejoinder (Brian A. Maurer) 43

3. Experiments, observations, and other kinds of evidence (Samuel M. Scheiner) 51
3.1: Commentary (Marie-Josee Fortin) 66
3.2: Commentary (Manuel C. Molles, Jr.) 67
3.3: Rejoinder (Samuel M. Scheiner)

Part 2: Logics of evidence 73

Overview (V. P. Godambe)

4. An error-statistical philosophy of evidence (Deborah G. Mayo) 79
4.1: Commentary (Earl D. McCoy) 97
4.2: Commentary (George Casella) 99
4.3: Rejoinder (Deborah G. Mayo) 101

5. The likelihood paradigm for statistical evidence (Richard Royall) 119
5.1: Commentary (D. R. Cox) 138
5.2: Commentary (Martin Curd) 140
5.3: Rejoinder (Richard Royall) 145

6. Why likelihood? (Malcolm Forster and Elliott Sober) 153
6.1: Commentary (Michael Kruse) 165
6.2: Commentary (Robert J. Boik) 167
6.3: Rejoinder (Malcolm Forster and Elliott Sober) 181

7. Evidence functions and the optimality of the law of likelihood (Subhash R. Lele) 191
7.1: Commentary (Christopher C. Heyde) 203
7.2: Commentary (Paul I. Nelson) 205
7.3: Rejoinder (Subhash R. Lele) 207

Part 3: Realities of nature 217

Overview (Mark S. Boyce)

8. Whole-ecosystem experiments : Replication and arguing from error (Jean A. Miller and Thomas M. Frost) 221
8.1: Commentary (William A. Link) 248
8.2: Commentary (Charles E. McCulloch) 256
8.3: Rejoinder (Jean A. Miller) 258

9. Dynamical models as paths to evidence in ecology (Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele) 275
9.1: Commentary (Steven Hecht Orzack) 286
9.2: Commentary (Philip M. Dixon) 290
9.3: Rejoinder (Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele) 292

10. Constraints on negative relationships : Mathematical causes and ecological consequences (James H. Brown, edward J. Bedrick, S. K. Morgan Ernest, Jean-Luc E. Carlton, and Jeffrey F. Kelly) 298
10.1: Commentary (Robert D. Holt and Norman A. Slade) 315
10.2: Commentary (Steve Cherry)
10.3: Rejoinder (James H. Brown, edward J. Bedrick, S. K. Morgan Ernest, Jean-Luc E. Carlton, and Jeffrey F. Kelly)

Part 4: Science, opinion, and evidence 325

Overview (Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele)

11. Statistics and the scientific method in ecology (Brian Dennis) 327
11.1: Commentary (Charles E. McCulloch) 360
11.2: Commentary (Aaron E. Ellison) 362
11.3: Rejoinder (Brian Dennis) 367

12. Taking the prior seriously : Bayesian analysis without subjective probability (Daniel Goodman) 379
12.1: Commentary (Nozer D. Singpurwalla) 400
12.2: Rejoinder (Daniel Goodman)

13. Elicit data, not prior : On using expert opinion in ecological studies (Subhash R. Lele) 410
13.1: Commentary (R. Cary Tuckfield) 423
13.2: Commentary (Lance A. Waller) 428
13.3: Rejoinder (Subhash R. Lele) 431

Part 5: Models, realities, and evidence 437

Overview (Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele)

14. Statistical distances as loss functions in assessing model adequacy (Bruce G. Lindsay) 439
14.1: Commentary (D. R. Cox) 478
14.2: Commentary (Stephen P. Ellner) 480
14.3: Rejoinder (Bruce G. Lindsay) 483

15. Model identification from many candidates (Mark L. Taper) 488
15.1: Commentary (Isabella Verdinelli and Larry Wasserman) 501
15.2: Commentary (Hamparsum Bozdogan) 508
15.3: Rejoinder (Mark L. Taper) 519

Part 6: Conclusion 525

16. The nature of scientific evidence : a forward-looking synthesis (Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele) 527

List of contributors 553
Index 557